There are some books that jump beyond their pages. Books that make an impact on our daily lives. Books that alter the way in which we perceive reality. Books that, once read, prevent us from reverting back to our pattern of thinking before them. The Drunkard’s Walk, for me, was such a book.
You may recognize the author, Leonard Mlodinow, as the longtime collaborator of Stephen Hawking. You’ll find his name tucked into some of Hawking’s most famous titles. He is, however, a rather prolific author in his own right. He’s explored fascinating topics such as how our unconscious mind effects our behavior or how feelings can shape our thinking.
I’ve always been very curious about randomness in general and thus I found this book particularly intriguing. I’ve realized that in spite of my curiosity, I understood little about what randomness is. I understood even less about how it impacts our lives and decisions. I’ve come to believe that the human brain is not compatible with randomness. We cannot understand it, yet we continually make what we consider to be informed decisions based upon it.
We analyze data and we presume that data provides us with answers. We are tricked by the illusion of causality. The law of small numbers is absolutely not a law, but another illusion we often succumb to. We fall prey to anchoring bias. We think we are able to make educated guesses, but in most cases we merely scratch the surface while we believe we see the big picture.
Data and statistics might make us feel confident, but it is an emotionally based confidence, not anything related to science or reality (as we currently understand and accept it).
For instance, are seven games enough to determine which team is the best when we watch the NBA playoffs?
I suppose so, if you are ok with the fact that there is still a 40% chance that the inferior team will win. We are about to crown new champions without the caveat that there is only a 60% chance we’ll crown the better team. I’m sure the anointed champions will be a great basketball team, but we really can’t say for sure if they are the best. Even if the teams met forty-five times, there would still be a 25% chance we’d award victory to the inferior team.
This example illustrates the ease with which we accept truths based upon information that is, at best, indeterminate.
Upon discovering how frequently important decisions, including medical decisions, are made based upon misinterpreted randomness, I began to wonder.
I wondered how often randomness causes us to make incorrect assumptions about our fellow man. We base our assumptions upon the roles people play, the jobs they hold, or the status they enjoy. But we rarely question how or why they came to be in those roles or positions.
I wondered how often I have personally observed something and then drawn incorrect conclusions. How often have I made decisions based on these incorrect conclusions? I hope not most of the time, but I am pretty sure that would be the case if I ever acquired the ability to make that determination.
I have come to realize that we really are living in a chaotic universe. We comfort ourselves with order and analysis, but it is done to preserve our own peace of mind. Order and analysis are simply illusions we contrive to survive in this crazy world.
This may strike you as exciting. Or maybe you find it terrifying. Either way, it is an emotional, human response to the chaos of randomness.
To my mind, this is a beautiful thing. And thus, this book opened my eyes and changed me forever. It has helped me to see the virtue of the old saying that when we assume, we make an ass of “u” and me.
I only recommend this book to those who don’t mind admitting that we all have spent some time being the ass who assumed they knew what they were talking about even though these assumptions were based on nothing more than pure, unadulterated randomness.
If you're curious, the video below serves as a teaser for the book. If you decide to open the Pandora's Box that is The Drunkard’s Walk, and if it happens to change your life, please share with us below!